Policy Risk Monitor – January 9, 2025
A weekly news scan of key policy areas to help firms identify and monitor policy risks.
Tax
Speaker Johnson Says Trump Legislative Agenda Will Pass by May
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson Speaker Mike Johnson said President-elect Donald Trump’s major legislative priorities will pass the House in April. The strategy is unclear, as there is differences over whether to pass it as one bill or two. Senators oppose putting border, taxes, and debt all in one bill. Trump said “as long as we get something passed as quickly as possible.” He also states that it will include his “no tax on tips” proposal. There are doubts that Republicans will be successful given disagreements within the party.
Trade
Trump Could Narrow Universal Tariffs
President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are considering tariffs that would apply to every country but be limited to critical imports, the Washington Post reported. During the campaign, Trump proposed universal tariffs of 10% to 20%. Many economists warned that universal tariffs could increases prices and disrupt global trade patterns. Trump denied that his aides were exploring this targeted tariff plan.
(see Trade Policy Alert: High Tariffs at Center of Trump Trade Policy.)
(see Key Policy Issue for 2024 Election: Trade.)
Foreign Investment
U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel Challenge Biden Decision to Block Merger
U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel filed lawsuits to challenge President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon’s proposed $15 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel over national security concerns. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) did not reach consensus on the possible national security risks of the acquisition. In the lawsuit, U.S. Steel accused the head of the Steelworkers union and another steelmaker of working together to stop the deal. The companies are hoping that the lawsuits can compel President-elect Donald Trump to approve the deal, the Financial Times reported.