Policy Risk Monitor – April 8, 2025
A weekly news scan of key policy areas to help firms identify and monitor policy risks.
Key Policy Developments
Trump Imposes Global Tariffs with “Reciprocal” Tariffs for 57 Countries
On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff on all imports into the United States, effective April 5, 2025, along with higher country-specific “reciprocal tariffs,” effective April 9, 2025. The reciprocal tariffs target the 57 countries listed in Annex I of the order and are in addition to existing tariffs, duties, or taxes. The global tariffs increase the U.S. effective tariff rate from 11% to 22.5% and amount to a tax increase of approximately $400 billion. The tariffs also increase the risk of stagflation, which could occur if prices increase and the United States and other trading partners enter into a recession. [Read more.]
Senate Republicans Approve Budget Resolution in Key Step Toward Tax Bill
On April 5, 2025, Senate Republicans voted 51-48 to adopt a budget resolution that would allow up to $5.5 trillion in net tax cuts over a decade, increase spending on border security and military, and cut spending by at least $4 billion. The Senate plan would also increase the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion. Republicans Rand Paul and Susan Collins voted against the resolution. [Read more.]
Trump Launches Investment Accelerator to Administer CHIPS Program
President Trump signed an executive order that creates the “United States Investment Accelerator” within the Department of Commerce to facilitate investment in the United States of more than $1 billion. The Investment Accelerator will encourage companies to make large investments in the United States by: “(1) reducing regulatory burdens; (2) speeding up permitting; (3) coordinating responses to investor issues across multiple Federal agencies; (4) increasing access to national resources; (5) facilitating collaboration with national laboratories; and (6) working with all 50 state governments and their economic development organizations, in each case according to applicable law.” The Investment Accelerator will administer the CHIPS Program Office, “where it will deliver the benefit of the bargain for taxpayers, negotiating much better CHIPS Act deals than the previous Administration.”
Key Policy Issues
Tax
Legislative update: Ways and Means Republicans reintroduce OECD Pillar Two reciprocity bill, KPMG, March 28, 2025
Uber, DoorDash Want ‘No Tax on Tips’ to Include Their Drivers, WSJ, March 29, 2025
Republicans Eye $25,000 SALT Cap as Trump’s Tax Cuts Take Shape, Bloomberg, April 1, 2025
Republicans Debate Hiking Top Tax Rate to 40% for Millionaires, Bloomberg, April 3, 2025
Trump’s tariffs threaten to blot out his party’s tax cuts, Semafor, April 3, 2025
Bessent Signals US on Debt-Limit ‘Warning Track’ for May or June, Bloomberg, April 2, 2025
Trade
U.S. Politics
Trump orders new review of U.S. Steel acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel, CNBC, April 7, 2025 [Executive Order]
US Business Put Spending Plans on Ice With Tariffs, Tax-Cut Wait, Bloomberg, March 31, 2025
Navarro says Trump’s tariffs will raise $6 trillion over a decade, The Hill, March 31, 2025
Peter Navarro says Vietnam’s 0% tariff offer is not enough: ‘It’s the nontariff cheating that matters’, CNBC, April 7, 2025
Peter Navarro, Donald Trump’s tariffs will fix a broken system, FT, April 7, 2025
Trump Says No Pause on Tariffs, But Open to Negotiations, Bloomberg, April 7, 2025
Thune urging GOP colleagues to kill resolution to undo Trump tariffs, The Hill, April 1, 2025
Emboldened Democrats plot ways to hammer Trump on tariffs, Semafor, April 3, 2025
Bipartisan Senate Bill Seeks to Give Congress More Power on Tariffs, Epoch Times, April 3, 2025
WTO Sees Decline in Trade Flows, Threat of Tariff War, WSJ, April 3, 2025
EU
EU to Discuss Lowering Tariffs in First Talks With Trump’s Team, Bloomberg, April 4, 2025
Germany and France Push for More Aggressive Tariff Response, Bloomberg, April 3, 2025
Italy and Spain Warn Against EU Escalation in Response to Trump, Bloomberg, April 5, 2025
EU Trade Chiefs Close Ranks as Trump Tariffs Jolt Global Trade, Bloomberg, April 7, 2025
Starmer Vows Steps to Bolster UK Against Trump Tariff Threat, Bloomberg, April 6, 2025
Frustrated World Leaders Wonder If Trump Even Wants a Deal, Bloomberg, April 7, 2025
Latin America
Brazil’s Lula Says He’ll Negotiate on Tariffs Before Retaliating, Bloomberg, March 29, 2025
Trump’s tariffs push Austria to back EU-Mercosur trade deal after decades of opposition, Insights, April 5, 2025
Spain eyes Mercosur deal by year-end, citing US tariffs as wake-up call, EFE, April 7, 2025
China
China to review BlackRock’s deal to buy Panama Canal ports, FT, March 28, 2025
China's Xi urges global CEOs to protect trade as Trump tariffs loom, Reuters, March 28, 2025
China Ties US Talks to Tariff Removal as Stalemate Deepens, Bloomberg, April 1, 2025
China Restricts Companies From Investing in US as Tensions Rise, Bloomberg, April 2, 2025
China imposing 34 percent tariffs on all US goods, The Hill, April 4, 2025
China Vows ‘Fight to the End’ on Tariffs as It Props Up Markets, Bloomberg, April 7, 2025
Trump extends TikTok deadline for the second time, CNBC, April 4, 2025 [Executive Order.]
Climate and Energy
Trump Says He’ll Bring Back Less Stringent Auto Emissions Standards, Bloomberg, March 31, 2025
Nuclear is now “clean energy” in Colorado after Gov. Polis signs bill, CPR News, April 1, 2025
Why OPEC+ is accelerating oil production as prices are tanking and tariffs hammer markets, CNBC, April 4, 2025
US closes in on critical minerals deal with DR Congo, FT, April 6, 2025
Technology
US Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger Investments, Bloomberg, March 31, 2025
Geopolitics
Trump Orders GOP Donor’s Oil Company to Leave Venezuela, Yahoo, March 29, 2025
Trump says he's 'very angry' and 'pissed off' at Putin during an NBC News interview, NBC, March 30, 2025
Greenland prime minister says US will not get Greenland, AP, March 30, 2025
Ex-Danish leader: ‘Nothing is stopping the Americans’ from having more bases in Greenland, The Hill, March 30, 2025
Trump threatens bombing if Iran does not make nuclear deal, Reuters, March 30, 2025
Trump Backs Away From Putin Criticism, Renews Attacks on Ukraine, Bloomberg, March 31, 2025
‘Pissed off' at Putin, Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil if Moscow blocks Ukraine deal, Reuters, March 31, 2025