Policy Risk Monitor – April 15, 2025
A weekly news scan of key policy areas to help firms identify and monitor policy risks.
Key Policy Developments
Trump Raises China Tariffs and Pauses Other Reciprocal Tariffs for 90 Days; Baseline Tariff Remains in Effect
On April 9, 2025, President Trump increased tariffs on China and paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for all countries other than China. The reciprocal tariffs were to take effect on that day. Trump also announced that he is raising tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately. The 10% baseline global tariff, which became effective April 5, 2025, remains in effect. The reciprocal tariffs are now scheduled to take effect July 8, 2025. [Read more.]
House Passes Senate Budget Framework, Setting Up Reconciliation Process
The House of Representatives passed its budget resolution 216-214 on April 10, 2025, following Senate passage of the resolution last week. The bill would implement a major part of President Donald Trump’s agenda by allowing up to $5.5 trillion in net tax cuts over 10 years ($4 trillion for the extension of the TCJA and $1.5 trillion for additional tax cuts), increase spending on border security and military, and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion rather than the $4 billion originally proposed in the Senate resolution. The framework would also increase the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion. [Read more.]
Emerging Policy Issues
Tax
Trump told Republican senators he’s open to raising taxes on highest earners, Semafor, April 8, 2025
Tariff pause, budget breakthrough — but Republicans aren’t celebrating yet, Semafor, April 10, 2025
Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill Faces Tense Next Chapter in Congress, WSJ, April 13, 2025
Trade
Republican lawmakers lobbied Trump to shift tariff strategy, Semafor, April 9, 2025
Musk labels Trump trade adviser 'moron' over Tesla comments, BBC, April 9, 2025
‘Team tariff’ vs ‘team econ’: Trump’s top advisers at odds as markets shake, Semafor, April 8, 2025
Trump Wants to Rewire Every Other Economy With Trade Onslaught, WSJ, April 9, 2025
Trump Team Races to Cut Piecemeal Tariff Deals With More Than 70 Countries, WSJ, April 10, 2025
‘The end of an era.’ What next for global trade?, FT, April 11, 2025
Proposed tariffs
Trump says US will soon announce tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, Reuters, April 8, 2025
Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs, CNBC, April 12, 2025
Trump Warns Tariffs Coming for Electronics After Reprieve, Bloomberg, April 13, 2025
Trump: Semiconductor tariffs coming, but ‘You have to show a certain flexibility’, The Hill, April 13, 2025
China
China Restricts Rare Earths Exports, Again, Oil Price.com, April 8, 2025
China says it will ‘fight to the end’ after Trump threatens to impose still more tariffs, AP, April 8, 2025
Trump Schedules Tariff Talks But Plans 104% Hit on China, Bloomberg, April 8, 2025
China Has Readied a Trade-War Arsenal That Takes Aim at U.S. Companies, WSJ, April 9, 2025
China Raises Tariffs on US Goods, Cautions Citizens on Travel, Bloomberg, April 9, 2025
U.S.-China Brawl Takes Center Stage in Global Trade War, WSJ, April 9, 2025
How China used Vietnam to evade higher U.S. tariffs, CNBC, April 12, 2025
Trade negotiations
'Looking good': Trump opens South Korea trade talks as 70 nations call US about tariffs, USA Today, April 8, 2025
Trump signals potential trade deal with South Korea, The Hill, April 8, 2025
Vietnam, US to Start Trade Deal Talks After 46% Tariff Pause, Bloomberg, April 9, 2025
Hassett Says US ‘Well Advanced’ in Trade Talks, 15 Offers on Table, Bloomberg, April 10, 2025
Thailand says to discuss tariffs with United States on April 21, Reuters, April 14, 2025
Japan
Bessent opening trade negotiations with Japan, The Hill, April 7, 2025
Japan PM Ishiba says he told Trump to rethink tariff policies, Reuters, April 8, 2025
Latin America
Mercosur to Expand Common Tariff Exemptions as Trade War Rages, Bloomberg, April 11, 2025
EU
EU Spares Bourbon as It Plans 25% Tariffs on Some US Goods, Bloomberg/MSN, April 8, 2025
Trump’s Tariffs Put UK Back on Course for May EU Reset Deal, Bloomberg, April 8, 2025
Italy's Meloni to meet Trump on April 17 for tariff talks, Reuters, April 8, 2025
EU calls for ‘negotiated resolution’ with China in face of US tariffs, FT, April 8, 2025
EU weighs up buying more US gas due to Donald Trump tariff pressure, FT, April 9, 2025
EU targets Trump’s red states with tariffs on US trucks, cigarettes and ice cream, Politico, April 9, 2025
EU Will Pause Metals Counter Tariffs Against US for 90 Days, Bloomberg, April 10, 2025
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen, FT, April 10, 2025
EU putting tariff countermeasures on hold for 90 days after Trump pause, The Hill, April 10, 2025
Trump Is Already Slowing Global Trade as Companies Pause Orders, Bloomberg, April 10, 2025
EU Races to Expand €2 Trillion Trade Club as US Links Sour, Bloomberg, April 11, 2025
Regulation
Bessent Says Treasury to Take on Greater Role in Bank Regulation, Bloomberg, April 9, 2025
Trump Asks Supreme Court to Let Him Fire Agency Leaders, Bloomberg, April 9, 2025
Trump’s EPA Plans to Stop Collecting Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data From Most Polluters, Pro Publica, April 10, 2025
Geopolitics
Iran says it is ready for nuclear deal if US stops military threats, BBC, April 8, 2025
Donald Trump Announces $1 Trillion Pentagon Budget: 'Have to Be Strong', Newsweek, April 8, 2025
Trump recognizes that domestic mining is a national security issue, The Hill, April 12, 2025
Energy and Climate
US licenses for Trinidad-Venezuela gas projects revoked, Trinidad says, Reuters, April 8, 2025
Republicans tap Trump’s love of tariffs in new carbon bill, E&E News, April 9, 2025
US licenses for Trinidad-Venezuela gas projects revoked, Trinidad says, Reuters, April 8, 2025
Republicans tap Trump’s love of tariffs in new carbon bill, E&E News, April 9, 2025
Trump tells countries to ax talks on shipping carbon tax, or else, Politico, April 9, 2025
US threatens retaliation over carbon tax on ocean shipping, Yahoo, April 9, 2025
Major nations agree on first-ever global fee on greenhouse gases with plan that targets shipping, AP, April 11, 2025